You’re referring to China’s announcement at the National People’s Congress (NPC) that it aims for economic growth of **”around 5%” for 2024**.
This target is indeed noteworthy for several reasons:
1. **Lowest Since 1991:** As you highlighted, “around 5%” represents one of the lowest growth targets China has set in decades, reflecting a significant recalibration from the high-growth era. While numerically matching the 2023 target, the continued setting of “around 5%” underscores a more realistic and perhaps cautious outlook for the world’s second-largest economy.
2. **Continuity in Lowering Expectations:** Your point about it being “lowered since it was cut to ‘around 5%’ in 2023” can be interpreted as a continuation of this trend. While the *numerical value* is the same as 2023, the decision to maintain this relatively conservative target, rather than aiming for a higher rebound, signals Beijing’s acceptance of a “new normal” of slower, yet hopefully more sustainable, growth. This contrasts with previous periods where higher targets were often set to spur ambition.
**Key Factors and Implications:**
* **Structural Headwinds:** The decision reflects serious challenges, including the ongoing property market crisis, mounting local government debt, weak domestic demand, and demographic shifts. External headwinds like geopolitical tensions and a slowing global economy also play a role.
* **Shift to “High-Quality” Growth:** Beijing has repeatedly emphasized a pivot from sheer quantity of growth to “high-quality development.” This means prioritizing innovation, technological self-reliance, environmental protection, and addressing structural imbalances over chasing high GDP numbers at all costs.
* **Focus on Risk Management:** A lower target allows the government more room to maneuver and address systemic risks, particularly in the financial and property sectors, without the pressure of having to constantly pump stimulus to meet ambitious growth figures.
* **Managing Expectations:** By setting a realistic target, the government aims to manage domestic and international expectations, creating a more stable environment for policy implementation.
* **Policy Implications:** This likely means continued support for strategic industries, efforts to boost domestic consumption, and targeted measures to stabilize the property sector and resolve local government debt, rather than broad-based stimulus.
* **Global Impact:** China’s slower growth will have ripple effects globally, particularly for commodity exporters and countries deeply integrated into its supply chains. However, a more stable and structurally sound Chinese economy could be a long-term positive.
In essence, setting “around 5%” again is a strong signal that China is acknowledging its complex economic reality and is committed to a path of more sustainable, albeit slower, growth, even if it means departing from the aspirational targets of the past.
