It seems there might be a slight misunderstanding regarding the specific conflict and timeframe you’re referencing. There hasn’t been a “direct Iran war” that began on February 28th causing a global disruption to oil production and transportation in the recent past.
However, there have been two major geopolitical events that significantly impacted global oil prices and, consequently, petrol prices:
1. **Russia’s invasion of Ukraine (February 2022):** This event caused a massive spike in crude oil prices, pushing Brent crude to over $120-$130 per barrel, as fears of supply disruption from a major producer (Russia) gripped the market.
2. **The Israel-Hamas conflict (October 2023 onwards):** While not a direct “Iran war,” the escalating tensions in the broader Middle East due to this conflict have introduced a geopolitical risk premium to oil prices, as the region is a major oil producer and transit hub.
Let’s address your question assuming you’re referring to the **general impact of geopolitical tensions on oil prices and their current state**:
**Are Oil Prices Back to “Pre-Conflict” Levels?**
* **Pre-Ukraine War (early 2022):** No, not consistently. Before the invasion, Brent crude was often in the **$70-$90 range**. While prices have come down significantly from their 2022 peak, they have generally stayed **above** these pre-invasion levels for extended periods. They often fluctuate in the **$75-$90 per barrel** range, influenced by OPEC+ supply cuts, global demand concerns (especially from China), and ongoing geopolitical risks.
* **Pre-Israel-Hamas Conflict (early October 2023):** Oil prices were already volatile then, around the **$80-$95 mark**. The conflict initially pushed them higher, but the premium has fluctuated. They are often still carrying some “risk premium” due to the ongoing tensions.
**What’s Happening to Petrol Prices Now?**
Since oil prices haven’t consistently returned to the significantly lower levels seen *before* the major geopolitical disruptions of the last couple of years, petrol (gasoline) prices at the pump reflect this.
Here’s why petrol prices haven’t necessarily dropped sharply, even with some dips in crude:
1. **Crude Oil Price Remains the Biggest Factor:** As long as Brent crude hovers in the $75-$90+ range, petrol prices will remain elevated compared to historical lows.
2. **Lag Effect:** Changes in crude oil prices take time (often several weeks) to filter through to the pump. Refineries purchase crude in advance, and retailers adjust prices based on their existing stock and future expectations.
3. **Refining Costs and Margins:** The cost of turning crude into usable petrol (refining) can fluctuate based on demand, refinery capacity, and seasonal blends.
4. **Taxes:** Taxes (excise duty, VAT/sales tax) form a significant portion of the final petrol price and generally remain constant or increase, regardless of crude oil movements.
5. **Distribution and Marketing Costs:** Transporting fuel from refineries to forecourts, along with retailer margins, also contribute to the final price.
6. **Currency Exchange Rates:** For countries that import oil, the strength of their local currency against the US dollar (in which oil is traded) also plays a role.
**In summary:**
Petrol prices are **not generally back to significantly lower “pre-conflict” levels** because crude oil prices, while down from their absolute peaks, are still trading at a premium compared to periods before the major disruptions of the past two years. They remain sensitive to ongoing geopolitical tensions, OPEC+ supply decisions, and global economic demand forecasts. Consumers continue to experience prices that are higher than true historical averages.
