Andy Burnham’s push for further devolution in Greater Manchester, often seen as a blueprint for other English regions, certainly *aims* to raise economic growth, and there are strong arguments for how it *could* succeed. However, whether it *will* definitively raise economic growth is a complex question with no guaranteed ‘yes’.
BBC Verify’s general assessment of devolution’s impact likely highlights both the potential benefits and the significant challenges.
Here’s a breakdown of the arguments:
**How Further Devolution Could Raise Economic Growth (The Optimistic View):**
1. **Tailored Policies & Local Knowledge:**
* **Relevance:** Local leaders, like Andy Burnham, are closer to the ground. They understand the specific needs, strengths, and weaknesses of their regional economy (e.g., Greater Manchester’s digital sector, advanced manufacturing, or transport challenges) better than central government officials in Whitehall.
* **Impact:** This allows for more targeted investments in infrastructure, skills training, business support, and innovation that are genuinely relevant to local industries and labor markets, potentially leading to higher productivity and job creation.
2. **Increased Accountability & Responsiveness:**
* **Relevance:** Local politicians are directly accountable to the local electorate. If economic policies fail, they face immediate consequences at the ballot box.
* **Impact:** This can drive greater efficiency, encourage bold decision-making, and faster adaptation to changing economic conditions compared to a more distant national government.
3. **Attracting Investment & Branding:**
* **Relevance:** A strong regional identity and a clear strategic vision, often championed by a visible figure like a directly-elected mayor, can make a region more attractive to domestic and international investors.
* **Impact:** Greater Manchester has already shown some success in this, with the Mayor playing a key role in promoting the region as a hub for specific sectors. Further powers could enhance this.
4. **Addressing Regional Disparities (Levelling Up):**
* **Relevance:** One of the core arguments for devolution is to tackle the UK’s significant regional inequalities. Regions like Greater Manchester often have lower productivity and GVA per capita compared to London and the South East.
* **Impact:** By giving regions the tools to grow their own economies, the aim is to reduce reliance on London, stimulate growth outside the capital, and create a more balanced national economy. This isn’t just about growth *within* the region but also contributing to overall national growth by optimizing currently underperforming areas.
5. **Innovation and Experimentation:**
* **Relevance:** Devolution allows different regions to try out different policy approaches. What works in Greater Manchester might not work in the West Midlands, and vice-versa.
* **Impact:** This can foster policy innovation and allow for the identification of best practices that could eventually be rolled out more broadly.
**Challenges and Conditions for Success (The Realistic View):**
1. **Fiscal Devolution:**
* **Challenge:** For true economic impact, regions often argue they need more than just spending powers; they need meaningful powers to raise their own revenue (e.g., local taxation, control over property taxes, or retention of a greater share of locally generated taxes). Without this, they remain largely dependent on central government grants, which can limit their ambition and long-term planning. Burnham himself has called for greater fiscal autonomy.
* **Impact:** Without significant fiscal powers, devolution might simply shift administrative responsibility without providing the financial muscle needed for transformative growth.
2. **Capacity and Expertise:**
* **Challenge:** Do local authorities and combined authorities have the technical expertise, analytical capacity, and administrative resources to effectively manage complex economic strategies, large-scale infrastructure projects, and sophisticated business support programs?
* **Impact:** A lack of capacity could lead to inefficiencies or less effective policy implementation.
3. **Coordination and Fragmentation:**
* **Challenge:** While local decision-making is good, too much fragmentation could lead to a ‘postcode lottery’ of services or even competition between neighboring regions rather than collaboration.
* **Impact:** National-level challenges (like large-scale transport networks or national research strategies) still require central coordination.
4. **Political Will and Stability:**
* **Challenge:** Devolution plans need sustained political will from both local and national governments. Frequent changes in national policy or local leadership can disrupt long-term economic strategies.
* **Impact:** Inconsistent support or shifting priorities can undermine the effectiveness of devolved powers.
5. **Measurement and Attribution:**
* **Challenge:** Isolating the direct impact of devolution on economic growth from other factors (national economic trends, global events, specific sector investments) is incredibly difficult.
* **Impact:** It can be hard to definitively prove cause and effect, making it challenging to learn and adapt.
**Conclusion:**
Andy Burnham’s devolution plan, which would likely involve expanding Greater Manchester’s existing powers, **has the potential to raise economic growth** by enabling more tailored, responsive, and accountable local economic strategies. Greater Manchester has already made strides in areas like transport and skills development under its current devolved powers.
However, success is not guaranteed. It hinges critically on:
* The **extent of fiscal autonomy** granted.
* The **capacity and expertise** of the devolved administration.
* **Effective collaboration** with businesses, universities, and other stakeholders.
* A **stable and supportive national framework**.
BBC Verify’s assessment would likely concur that while the principle is sound, the devil is in the detail of implementation and the genuine transfer of power, especially fiscal power, to truly unlock significant and sustainable economic growth.
