It seems there might be a misunderstanding regarding recent geopolitical events impacting fuel prices.
Currently, **there is no publicly known “deal” between the US and Iran** that would significantly impact global oil prices by bringing more Iranian supply to market or de-escalating tensions to that extent. In fact, tensions in the Middle East, particularly those related to the Israel-Hamas conflict and its spillover (like Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping), have been a source of *upward pressure* on oil prices due to supply chain disruptions and risk premiums.
The “conflict began on 28 February” and subsequent jump in fuel costs you’re referring to likely relates to the **Russia-Ukraine war**, which began in late February 2022. That conflict indeed caused major disruptions to global energy markets, leading to significant increases in petrol and diesel prices worldwide, including in the UK.
### What is *Actually* Happening to UK Petrol and Diesel Prices Now?
UK fuel prices are primarily influenced by:
1. **Global Crude Oil Prices (Brent Crude):** This is the biggest factor.
* **Supply & Demand:** Decisions by OPEC+ (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies like Russia) on production quotas, global economic growth (which drives demand), and US shale oil output all play a role.
* **Geopolitical Risk:** Ongoing tensions in the Middle East (including the Red Sea attacks affecting shipping routes) and the continued Russia-Ukraine war add a “risk premium” to crude oil prices.
* **US Dollar Strength:** Oil is priced in US dollars, so a weaker pound against the dollar makes crude oil more expensive for UK buyers.
2. **Refining Margins:** The cost and profit associated with turning crude oil into usable petrol and diesel.
3. **Wholesale Prices:** What retailers pay for fuel from suppliers.
4. **UK-Specific Factors:**
* **Fuel Duty:** A fixed tax per litre set by the government (currently 52.95 pence per litre for both petrol and diesel).
* **VAT:** 20% value-added tax applied to the total price, including fuel duty.
* **Retailer Margins:** The profit garages and supermarkets make on each litre.
**Current Trends (as of late May/early June 2024):**
* **Overall, UK fuel prices have remained relatively high** throughout much of 2024.
* After a period of slight increases earlier in the spring, prices have seen some minor fluctuations and small decreases recently, but they are still significantly above levels seen before the 2022 energy crisis.
* Crude oil prices have been relatively stable or seen slight dips recently, influenced by factors like strong US inventory data and concerns about global demand, which can offer some relief at the pumps. However, persistent geopolitical risks prevent major price falls.
* The pound’s performance against the dollar also plays a role in how these global prices translate into UK pump prices.
**In summary:** There’s no “US-Iran deal” currently driving UK fuel prices down. Instead, prices are a complex mix of global crude oil dynamics (supply, demand, and ongoing geopolitical risk), refining costs, and UK-specific taxes and retailer margins. To get the most up-to-date figures, it’s always best to check sources like the RAC Fuel Watch or the AA Fuel Price Report.
